Crime Rates

So what is the “Crime Rate” in Lexington and is it really up?

What exactly do police officials, politicians, and the media mean when they say that the “crime rate” is up or down? Do they mean violent or non- violent crimes or both? What about drug related offenses? Are loud parties near UK's campus considered part of the crime rate?

When you hear someone refer to “the crime rate,” they are most likely talking about the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Program, and usually the eight specific crimes that are considered the most serious, or “Part 1” crimes. This effort, which began in the 1930s, is a voluntary crime reporting program in which over 18,000 law enforcement agencies, including the Lexington Police Department, forward the number of crimes reported to them to the FBI at the end of each calendar year. The eight offenses that make up the Part 1 crimes are: Murder and non-negligent Manslaughter, Forcible Rape, Robbery, Aggravated Assaults, Burglary, Larceny/ Theft, Motor Vehicle Theft, and Arson.

The UCR program isn't perfect. For one thing, by definition, it only compiles data on crimes reported to law enforcement. If a crime goes unreported, for purposes of the UCR, it doesn't exist. The National Institute of Justice conducts the National Crime Victimization Survey that attempts to gather data directly from victims to document these underreported crimes. Their research indicates that the actual rate of crime victimization is much higher than what is captured by the UCR.

Still, the UCR is generally considered the best tool we have to measure the rise or fall of the crime rate from year to year.  Every year the Lexington Division of the Police publishes an annual report that includes the UCR numbers that have been reported to the FBI for the previous year. The most current report, which was for 2010, can be viewed online at the following link:

 
http://www.lexingtonky.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=18067

A review of UCR data for Lexington as provided in those annual reports shows that Lexington's crime rate has been rising over the last several years. In fact, the Part 1 crime rate in 2011 has already surpassed its highest level in the last decade.  

At this point you may be thinking, “That can't be right. I remember something I heard recently about crime in Lexington being the lowest it's ever been.” You're not mistaken. You did hear that in early 2008. Here's a link to a story by WKYT about it.

http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/14434167.html

In 2007, the Part 1 crime rate fell 8.4% over the rate in 2006. There were 11,169 Part 1 crime offenses reported that year. It was the lowest number of Part 1 crimes reported since the city of Lexington and Fayette County merged in 1974.That same year was also the year that the actual number of sworn police officers in Lexington was the highest it had ever historically been. According to the 2010 Annual Report linked to above, there were 593 sworn officers, just under the authorized strength at that time of 595 officers. Unfortunately, due to the neglect of Lexington's elected officials, that level of personnel was not maintained and the crime rate began to rise the following year.

In 2008, the number of actual sworn officers fell to 568 and the number of reported Part 1 crimes rose to 11,549. This was a percentage increase of 3.4%. In 2009 the number of sworn officers held steady at 569, but the number of Part 1 crimes rose again by 3.16% to 11,914. In 2010 the number of sworn officers dropped dramatically to 542 and the Part 1 crimes rose by 7.3% to 12,784. By this time the dramatic decrease in 2007 that the city of Lexington had rightly been proud of had been completely erased.

As we approach the end of 2011, the number of sworn police officers has dropped (or will drop) to an expected 515 by December 31. The final number of Part 1 crimes reported will not be available until January of 2012. However, we have obtained the number of reported Part 1 crimes through October of 2011.

As of October 31, 2011 there have been 13,130 Part 1 crimes reported to the Lexington Police Department. That represented an increase of 2.7% over 2010 with two full months of reporting remaining. During 2010 Lexington averaged just over 1,100 Part 1 crimes reported per month. During 2011 YTD Lexington has averaged 1,300 Part 1 crimes reported per month. If that trend continues through November and December, Lexington will have to report to the FBI the highest number of Part 1 crimes since 1995. Already Lexington has surpassed the highest number of reported Part 1 crimes in 10 months that had been reported in any year of the past decade. (In 2001 the number of reported Part 1 crimes was 13,090.)

The following chart shows how the number of Part 1 crimes rose in Lexington as the actual number of sworn officers fell:

Expressed as a percentage, the number of reported crimes has increased 17.5% since 2007. The numbers don't lie. Our elected officials haven't done enough to provide the resources necessary to Keep Lexington Safe.

For more information and to see data collected as part of the UCR for yourself, click on the link below;

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr